Gobierno dominicano estima crecimiento cero y una depreciación de 11.2 % para este año.

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Autoridades señalan en el documento Marco Macroeconómico que la proyección no es definitiva y que está sujeta a una elevada incertidumbre

El gobierno dominicano publicó sus primeras previsiones macroeconómicas para este año, luego de varios meses de silencio debido a la incertidumbre generada por los efectos del COVID-19.

Las autoridades económicas estiman que este año el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de República Dominicana registre un comportamiento en un rango de -1 % a 1 %. De tal manera, la economía -que el gobierno espera que inicie su recuperación en el segundo semestre del año- muestre un crecimiento neutro en 2020, de un cero por ciento.

En el documento Marco Macroeconómico correspondiente a junio, al que Diario Libre tuvo acceso, se indica que esta previsión económica no es definitiva, debido a la cambiante situación externa y doméstica provocada por la pandemia. Por lo tanto, se basa en "las informaciones económicas disponibles hasta mediados de mayo 2020, tanto del entorno internacional como del ámbito local".

La proyección, acordada entre los ministerios de Hacienda y de Economía, Planificación y Desarrollo y el Banco Central, incluye la tasa promedio esperada del tipo de cambio que calculan en 57.05 pesos por dólar para todo el año. Ello supone una depreciación del peso de 11.2 % "mayor a la de años anteriores, debido a los efectos en el sector externo ocasionados por la pandemia".

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"La evolución para el resto del año estaría condicionada por el balance entre los efectos positivos por la dinámica de los términos de intercambio (oro, petróleo) versus los ajustes en cantidades: exportaciones de bienes (nacionales y zonas francas) y servicios (incluyendo actividades turísticas que se reactivarán a partir del mes de julio con el levantamiento de las restricciones de viaje a nivel global), que se reducirán por una menor demanda externa, e importaciones no petroleras que disminuirían por menor demanda interna privada", dice el documento oficial.

El gobierno dominicano estima en el Marco Macroeconómico correspondiente a junio (revisado el 25 de mayo) que el precio del petróleo promediará este año los 30.1 dólares el barril, mientras que la cotización de la onza de oro estaría en 1,600 dólares en promedio.

En la previsión para este año, el gobierno destaca que la elevada volatilidad, las fluctuaciones extremas y la alta incertidumbre condicionan "significativamente" los desarrollos esperados a corto plazo para una economía pequeña y abierta como la dominicana. Ello, en particular, afectaría en el flujo adecuado de las divisas hacia la economía de República Dominicana.

Además de la actividad turística, que está totalmente cerrada desde el pasado 19 de marzo, los ingresos en divisas del país provienen de las remesas familiares y de la Inversión Extranjera Directa.

En el caso de los envíos de dinero de los emigrantes a sus familiares en República Dominicana, el Banco Central reportó que el flujo de remesas que ingresó al país alcanzó los 2,737 millones de dólares entre enero y mayo, un monto inferior en 133.3 millones (-4.6 %) al registrado en el mismo período de 2019.

En lo que se refiere a la inversión extranjera, los datos disponibles indican que en el primer trimestre ingresaron 758.3 millones de dólares, una reducción de 177.7 millones con respecto a igual lapso del año anterior.

"Estos elementos, junto con el tipo de cambio real, son variables fundamentales para determinar la capacidad de nuestra economía poder absorber, manejar y solventar de manera resiliente la presente coyuntura", señala el reporte Marco Macroeconómico.

Fuente: Diario Libre.

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